The 2026 WRC drivers’ championship will be decided at Rally Italia Sardegna from 1 to 4 October. WRC published the finale’s title permutations on 24 September: Toyota’s Elfyn Evans leads with 230 points, followed by Sami Pajari on 213 and Oliver Solberg on 209. All three are chasing a first world title. Evans needs only 19 points at this round to secure the championship, regardless of his two team-mates’ results.
Sardinia was originally the penultimate round. On 17 September, the FIA and WRC Promoter confirmed that the Saudi Arabian round planned for November would no longer count towards the 2026 WRC, making Sardinia the 13th and final round. The announcement also stated that the calendar change remained subject to FIA World Motor Sport Council approval. The Saudi event was still planned as a Middle East Rally Championship round, but the drivers’ title fight had only the Sardinia weekend remaining.
Why 19 points are enough: overall results plus two Sunday scores
Under a normal full-distance schedule, the overall rally winner receives 25 points. The aggregate Sunday classification, Super Sunday, and the final Power Stage each offer up to 5 additional points, making 35 the maximum for a round. Scoring 19 would give Evans 249, above Pajari’s maximum of 213 + 35 = 248 and Solberg’s 244. The table shows different combinations for finishing second through fifth overall. Sixth earns only 8 points, so even a full 10 on Sunday produces only 18 and cannot guarantee the title independently of the others. Scoring fewer than 19 does not mean losing the championship; it depends on the rivals’ actual scores.
Pajari and Solberg: a points tie could still deliver the title
To finish strictly ahead of Evans on points, Pajari must outscore him by at least 18 at this round. He must also protect his 4-point advantage over Solberg. He has already won three consecutive rounds this year in Estonia, Finland and Paraguay. If he scores the maximum 35 and Evans takes 18, both would finish on 248, but victory in Sardinia would give Pajari four wins this season against Evans’s two in Sweden and Japan. FIA rules compare wins first, then second places, third places and so on. A higher points total is therefore not a prerequisite in every title-winning scenario.
Solberg trails Evans by 21 points and Pajari by 4. To exceed both on points, he must outscore them by at least 22 and 5 respectively. If he scores 35, he will finish on 244; Evans would also reach 244 with 14 points. But Solberg would add a third win to his victories in Monte Carlo and Chile, giving him the tie-break advantage. That 14-point ceiling applies specifically when Solberg scores the maximum 35; it cannot be transferred directly to his other scoring combinations.
Overall rally and Sunday points combinations that take Evans to 19
| Overall rally finish | Overall result points | Additional Sunday points needed to reach 19 | Title guaranteed regardless of rivals |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | 25 | 0 | Yes |
| Second | 17 | At least 2 | Yes |
| Third | 15 | At least 4 | Yes |
| Fourth | 12 | At least 7 | Yes |
| Fifth | 10 | At least 9 | Yes |
| Sixth | 8 | Even the full 10 produces only 18 points | No; depends on rivals’ results |
INKA SPORTS analysis: the three maximum totals cannot all occur together
The totals of 248 and 244 are the two challengers’ individual pre-rally ceilings, not results they can achieve simultaneously. To score 35, Solberg must win the rally, Super Sunday and the Power Stage. Pajari could then earn at most 17, 4 and 4 in those classifications: 25 for the round and 238 for the year, short of 244. With a perfect score for Solberg, the first question is therefore whether Evans can exceed 14 points. If Evans scores 15, he reaches 245 and still wins the championship by one point. If Solberg falls short of the maximum, the three drivers’ actual totals and wins must be compared again.
The 10 Sunday points are not simply a freely available balance to top up the overall result. They come from two separate classifications, each awarding 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points, and all three drivers are competing directly for those same positions. Toyota secured the manufacturers’ championship in Chile. In its pre-event preview, team principal Jari-Matti Latvala said it would provide reliable cars so the three could compete fairly. Sardinia’s narrow, rocky and abrasive gravel roads will still affect finishing prospects and Sunday performance. The team’s position does not mean any driver can reliably obtain the score assumed in a pre-rally calculation.
Summary
Evans’s advantage is a 19-point title threshold that does not depend on his rivals. Pajari and Solberg still have routes through tying the total and winning on countback. To follow the finale, the overall rally, Super Sunday and Power Stage should be scored separately before combining them with the season totals. Only the actual distribution and final positions can establish whether fewer than 19 points are enough. The title picture could become clear early or remain open until the final stage; pre-event perfect-score assumptions are not race results.
