After Kimi Antonelli secured the Drivers’ Championship in Mexico, Mercedes has an opportunity to complete the double at round 20 in Brazil. Mercedes heads the 2026 constructors’ standings with 630 points to Ferrari’s 504, a lead of 126. Outscoring Ferrari by at least three points in São Paulo would secure the team title.
Why a three-point gain is enough
The calculation starts with what remains after Brazil. The official weekend schedules for Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi contain no Sprint. At full Grand Prix points, a one-two finish earns a team 25 plus 18 points, or 43; three such races therefore offer a maximum of 129. Brazil also has a standard programme of three practice sessions, qualifying and the Grand Prix.
Adding three points to the current 126-point advantage produces exactly 129. Ferrari could then only draw level by taking a one-two in every remaining race while Mercedes scored nothing. Under the FIA regulations, a championship points tie is first settled by the number of race wins.
Antonelli’s nine wins and George Russell’s three give Mercedes 12 Grand Prix victories through Mexico. Ferrari has two, one each for Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc. With only four Grands Prix left including Brazil, Ferrari cannot catch that total. A 129-point lead is therefore enough; Mercedes does not have to move beyond 129.
Three finishing combinations that guarantee the title
The table gives three sufficient combinations, using full points and assigning Ferrari the best two positions left available by the Mercedes finishers. Lower Ferrari finishes would increase the margin. These examples do not cover every possible title-winning result.
For example, first and fourth would give Mercedes 37 points. Ferrari could at best finish second and third for 33, a four-point difference that would increase the championship gap to 130. Mercedes does not need a one-two: the relevant figure is the combined score of each team’s two cars.
| Mercedes finishes | Mercedes points | Best Ferrari finishes | Ferrari points | Mercedes net gain | Championship gap after race |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, 2 | 43 | 3, 4 | 27 | +16 | 142 |
| 1, 3 | 40 | 2, 4 | 30 | +10 | 136 |
| 1, 4 | 37 | 2, 3 | 33 | +4 | 130 |
INKA SPORTS Analysis and Summary: Count both cars
Antonelli’s drivers’ title does not automatically award the constructors’ trophy. Both drivers contribute to a team’s total, so a retirement or lost points for either car can change the weekend’s net result. To retain a mathematical chance, Ferrari must limit Mercedes’ gain over it to no more than two points in Brazil.
The focus is therefore on whether Mercedes can deliver with both cars, rather than only whether the new champion wins again. These conditions use the current points, race-win totals and published remaining schedules; they do not predict the result. The Brazilian Grand Prix is scheduled for 17:00 UTC on November 8, or 01:00 Beijing time on November 9.
