Former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner predicts that four-time world champion Max Verstappen could end 2026 without a Grand Prix win. According to Motorsport.com, he made the assessment on The Red Flags Podcast after the Spanish Grand Prix, arguing that Mercedes and McLaren were too strong and that Red Bull’s competitiveness limited Verstappen. This is a commentator’s forecast for the remaining season, not a team announcement of the outcome.
Three second places have yet to become a victory
As of the Spanish round on 13 September, Verstappen was sixth with 145 points, 147 behind leader Kimi Antonelli. He finished second in Austria, Hungary and Spain and also reached the podium in Canada, Belgium and Italy, making six top-three finishes in all. Steiner acknowledged that his personal performance could still secure podiums, but felt that was close to the current car’s ceiling. The question is therefore how far the step from podium to victory remains.
The recent Madrid race illustrated the distinction between a result and speed. F1’s official report described Verstappen reducing the time lost by pitting under the Virtual Safety Car. Norris, who had been leading, missed the same window and then suffered a slow stop of around 7 seconds, emerging fifth. Norris subsequently closed but could not overtake on the difficult-to-pass circuit, leaving Verstappen second.
In F1’s compilation of post-race feedback, Verstappen acknowledged that he lacked the speed to challenge for the lead and that Antonelli and Norris were faster throughout. He felt positioning the car in the middle of the track helped defend. Motorsport.com’s account of his comments to Sky Sports also mentioned room to improve energy deployment and the car itself. These are the driver’s assessments of that event; a runner-up result alone does not establish consistent race-winning pace for Red Bull.
The team’s assessment of progress faces a new Baku test
Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies emphasised progress in his post-race assessment. Spain was Verstappen’s fifth podium in seven races, and the team continued improving the car and power unit to close the gap. That differs in focus from Steiner’s forecast: one describes a recent trend, while the other asks whether the team can win any remaining round. Consistent points show an ability to convert opportunities into results, but another weekend must test whether the progress is enough to change the fight among the leaders.
The next round, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, is scheduled for 24–26 September. F1’s official timetable places FP1 and FP2 on Thursday the 24th, FP3 and qualifying on Friday the 25th, and the race on Saturday the 26th. Red Bull can use Thursday and Friday practice to evaluate its performance at the new round. Baku provides a different circuit sample from Madrid, but its characteristics alone cannot establish Red Bull’s winning prospects before running begins.
INKA SPORTS analysis: second place proves an opportunity was converted, not necessarily the pace ceiling
Second place in Spain combined a favourable pit window, retained track position and driver execution. Those factors cannot all be converted into pure car speed. Verstappen’s own feedback supports a remaining gap at that event, while Mekies’s recent podium trend shows that the competitive situation is not fixed. Assessing Steiner’s prediction therefore requires separating two questions: whether Red Bull can approach its rivals’ normal race pace and whether it can turn an opportunity at a particular event into victory. Improvement in one does not automatically prove the other condition is satisfied.
Summary
As of Spain, Verstappen had yet to win a 2026 Grand Prix. Three second places and a 147-point deficit to the leader provide the factual context for Steiner’s forecast. Madrid also showed that a strong result through strategy timing and defence differs from possessing leading pace. Red Bull believes it is still improving, while the winless forecast awaits the remaining races. Baku must first test whether that progress carries into a different circuit environment.
Further data: Verstappen career profile · F1 standings. Career data and the 2026 season points in this article use different statistical scopes.
